First Round Predictions

DET-CLE
Detroit lost their heart and soul when they dealt Chauncey Billups for Allen Iverson earlier this season. Additionally, Rasheed Wallace has never seemed more apathetic. The Cavs should steamroll Detroit in 5 games and officially end the Michael Curry Era in Motor City.

CHI-BOS
With the news that KG might miss the entire postseason, the first round of the playoffs just got a lot more interesting for Boston. Suddenly, they become a perimeter team that relies on Paul Pierce to do all the heavy lifting on offense AND check John Salmons on D. Since adding Salmons and Brad Miller, the Bulls have settled nicely into their roles. I'm still picking Boston here but it'll be a long, drawn-out series that drains Pierce and Ray Ray for whoever they face next. The champs are wobbly but I don't see 'em getting KO'd by this glass-jaw Chicago team. Celtics in 7.

*UPDATE: Danny Ainge just had a heart attack; the Shitbury Curse continues.

PHI-ORL
I'm not a big fan of the Orlando Magic. Teams that rely too much on spot up shooting rarely win titles. Factor in the recent injuries to Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis and this bunch seems ripe for an upset. Too bad Philly ain't good enough to capitalize. Watching pencil-neck Samuel Dalembert try to check 'roid beast Dwight Howard will be laughable. Orlando in 6.

MIA-ATL
Atlanta's home court advantage will be the deciding factor in a high scoring series featuring some eye-popping performances by Dwyane Wade. Al Horford will dominate inside for the Hawks on both ends. Atlanta in 7.

UTA-LA
In the West, I don't see Utah's feeble defense offering much resistance to the high-octane Lakers attack. LA in 5. Yawn.

NO-DEN
The Hornets will upset the Denver Nuggets in 6 if Tyson Chandler is healthy enough to play. Without him, I'll go with Denver in 7. Even though they added Big Shot Billups, Denver still ain't going very far in the playoffs without a true center. A memo to Kroenke The Donkey: imagine how good your team would be if you didn't give away two-time Defensive Player Of The Year, Marcus Camby.

DAL-SA
Manu Ginobili's out but the Spurs will still handle the toothless Mavericks and their pussified brand of non-contact basketball. San Antonio in 6.

HOU-POR
Probably the most evenly matched of all the first round series. The Rockets can put Artest or Battier on Brandon Roy, forcing other Blazers to beat them. On the flip side, Portland can throw the Vanilla Gorilla and Greg Olden at Yao. So really, it becomes a battle of supporting casts. Look for a big series from the Blazers bench as Portland advances by a hair in 7.

Coming Down The Stretch...

With the season 3/4 of the way over, here are my picks to close out their respective categories and take home the hardware:

Champs- As much as it pains me to say this, I have to give the nod to the Cavs right now. They're too big for the Bynum-less Lakers and too deep for the Posey-less Celtics. I also think that Joe Smith is better for that offense than Ben Wallace. Smith's like a poor man's Horace Grant- a good rebounder and post defender who nails the 15 footer consistently. Delonte West and Mo Williams know their roles and make open 3s. Big Z's great on the offensive glass. I don't see anyone beating them.

MVP- Lebron over Kobe. James was already one of the best offensive players in the league. This season, he proved he can play All-Star caliber D. That said, if Cleveland hits a lull over the final few weeks, Kobe could catch fire and snatch his second Podoloff in a row. Props to DWade, Brandon Roy and Dwight Howard but it's a two-man race between James and Bryant.

Defensive Player Of The Year- Howard. Sure, Wade and James learned a thing or two about defense from Kobe at the Olympics but Superman's a rebounding and shot blocking machine.

Most Improved- Everyone's talking about Devin Harris but wasn't he this good last year, too? The player who took the biggest leap this offseason was Howard. The guy went from 'freakish athlete' to 'superstar with potential to be the best ever' in three months. Kevin Durant is going fucking ballistic, too. Think about how much better he'll be when he actually has a muscle or two on that skinny frame. Ironically, Shaq also showed great improvement this year, going from a useless fat bastard to dominant All-Star since hitching up with the Phoenix Suns training staff.

Coach Of The Year- It'll be Mike Brown or Stan Van Gundy but my vote would go to Nate McMillan. Nobody expected anything from Portland (especially with Oden dinged up) but Nate established a great rotation where every player knows his role. He was also smart enough to hand over the reins to Roy, who's proven himself worthy of MVP talk. Big ups to Erik Spoelstra for keeping the Heat over .500 with one of the youngest teams in the NBA.

Executive- How can it NOT be Donnie Walsh? Goodbye, Isiah Thomas, Stephon Marbury and Jerome James. Hello, Mike D'Antoni, Al Harrington and cap room for next year's big free agent run which will net them either Lebron, DWade, Amare or Chris Bosh. Masterful. The Gallinari pick is a blemish but I'll put that one on D'Antoni.

6th Man- Jason Terry or Manu Ginobili will win but I LOVE what Trevor Ariza has done off the bench for LA this year. If they win the title, Ariza will a major reason why. Think about this for a sec: if LA had Ariza in the Finals last year, does Paul Pierce score at will off of isolation plays? Um, no.

Pictured: Ariza posterizing Grant Hill



Rookie- Derrick Rose gets the nod over OJ Mayo, Russell Westbrook and Brook Lopez. I talked shit about both Mayo and Westbrook around draft time, referring to them as Smurfs. I was wrong. They're both really good. I still think Mayo is more Ben Gordon than Michael Jordan but he's not a Smurf, by any means. Sorry. I suck.

Western Conference Predictions 2008/9

The big Qs- Is Bynumite the missing piece? Does Posey put the Hornets over the top? Are the Spurs done? Is this the year Ron Ron eats a baby?

Pacific Division
Los Angeles Lakers (62-20)
With Bynum back in the fold, they'll finish with the best record in the league. But without dealing one of their PFs (Odom, Gasol) for a versatile 3 (like Marion), they won't have the defensive balance to win a title. I also wonder who'll fill in for Turiaf as the energy guy off the bench. I'm seeing a Game 7 loss in the Western Conference Finals. And another MVP for Kobe, bad pinkie and all.

Phoenix Suns (58-24)
Even with all the chaos Steve Kerr hath wrought, this team still has Nash, Amare and Barbosa. That should be good enough for their customary heartbreaking loss in the 2nd round of the playoffs. The most interesting plotline here: is this Shaq's last season? And if so, what's his legacy- Most Dominant Ever or egomaniacal stooge?

*Note- Shaq just announced he plans to play two more seasons.

Los Angeles Clippers (45-37)
The Baron/Brand Conspiracy Gone Wrong was the story of the summer. And I'm still amazed that they got Camby from Denver for a 2nd round pick. Things were actually looking good until they signed Ricky Davis and Jason Williams, the basketball equivalent of having SARS and Avian Bird Flu in the locker room.

*Note- Jason Williams announced he's retiring. Add another couple wins to LA's predicted total.

Golden State Warriors (28-54)
Went from tantalizing to terrible in a month. This Monta Ellis fiasco couldn't come at a worse time. And if they were gonna spend that much dough on Maggette, why didn't they just pay Baron in the first place? A real botch job by Mullin. Silver lining: rookie Anthony Randolph was dominant in Summer League (but then again, so was Koko Archibong).

Sacramento Kings (19-63)
No cowbells ringing this year. Their two best players, Kevin Martin and John Salmons, play the same position. They traded Artest for an old, hobbled Bobby Jackson. Brad Miller still can't guard a chair. Bye bye, Reggie Theus. Nice knowing you. Maybe you can go back into modeling.



Southwest Division
New Orleans Hornets (60-22)
They won't sneak up on anybody this year. But the addition of Posey provides another tested playoff performer and perimeter defender, both important qualities they lacked. Another season of chemistry between CP3, West and Chandler leads to Byron Scott's first championship as a coach.

Houston Rockets (58-24)
The fragile bodies of Yao and TMac keep Houston from being a true contender, even with madman Artest on board. And Rafer Alston isn't a leader by any stretch of the imagination. Their roster is deep, though. If all the cards fall into place, they could be scary. More likely, they play well in spurts that coincide with the everchanging moods of Ron Ron.

San Antonio Spurs (54-28)
First, the bad: Ginobili's injury means they'll start slow. Bruce Bowen is 37 so his days as a stopper are coming to an end. Michael Finley remains one of the least effective starters in the league. The good: Duncan's still only 32. Parker's still Parker. Popovich remains one of the game's best coaches. Ditto for Buford as GM. So even with bad omens everywhere, they could still hoist another trophy in June.

Dallas Mavericks (46-36)
Jason Kidd is a shadow of his former self. I'm a Carlisle fan but I don't see how much more he can get out of this aging bunch who seem to have left their collective heart in Miami two years ago. They still play pansy-ass, jump shooting basketball, not a recipe for success in a man's league. Dirk continues his downward career arc from 'the next Larry Bird' to 'the next Tom Chambers.'

Memphis Grizzlies (12-70)
Worst team in basketball, right here. Other than Rudy Gay, they've got nothing. OJ Mayo will have every opportunity to show the world what a slightly-above-average basketball player he is. Subtract an additional three wins if the Zach Randolph trade goes through. Mike Conley continues to develop...very...slowly. As Yoda would say, 'Unwatchable, they will be.'

Northwest Division
Utah Jazz (55-27)
So predictable, so efficient, so boring. Another solid year for DWilliams and Boozer. Another year of hard fouls from Harpring. Another year of wifeswapping for Kirilenko. Yawn.



Portland Trail Blazers (50-32)
Tough luck: as soon as Oden comes back, Brandon Roy goes down. Expect things to start clicking around mid-season as Rudy Fernandez gets comfy and everyone's healthy at the same time. Still think they should've kept James Jones, though. Oden averages 13/10/3 to edge Beasley for ROY.

Denver Nuggets (38-44)
Blow 'em up, start over. Without Camby in the middle, this team will give up 180 points a game. No way they finish the season with Melo, Iverson AND George Karl on the payroll. When your biggest offseason move is giving a fat contract to JR Smith, you know you're fucked. Maybe Kenyon Martin will punch Nene again. At least that'd be exciting.

Minnesota Timberwolves (24-58)
Let the Kevin Love era begin. I'm sure he'll win a handful of games with his artful outlet passes alone. I keeeed, I keeeeed. It'll be more of the same drudgery in 'Sota as McHale proves again his complete ineptitude at drafting. Mike Miller seems to be making a career of scoring points on dreadful teams. He's like the Kelly Tripucka of this generation.

Oklahoma City Thunder (18-64)
Fuck Clay Bennett. That douchebag doesn't deserve Kevin Durant. Or sold out arenas. May the ghost of Detlef Schremph eternally haunt this franchise.

Eastern Conference Predictions 2008/9

The big Qs- Can Boston repeat? Will Detroit rebuild? Does Lebron leave Cleveland? Does Marion get traded? Why did D'Antoni take that job?

ATLANTIC DIVISION
Boston Celtics (55-27)
Losing James Posey will definitely hurt. Don't forget that throughout their march to the ring, Doc referred to Posey as 'the fourth member of the Big Three', whatever the fuck that means. I'm also expecting slippage due to post-title complacency and the Limberger effect of Darius Miles. No repeat here.

Toronto Raptors (48-34)
Did you know that Jermaine O'Neal makes twenty million dollars this year? That's a lot of scratch for a guy who plays the same position as Chris Bosh. I know, I know, it's the East, 'Jermaine can play center.' But he's not a center, right? He's a power forward, and a brittle one at that. Underrated Anthony (Don't Call Me Candace) Parker and Jamario Moon will continue to compensate for the overall suckiness of former #1, Andrea Bargnani.

Philadelphia Sixers (43-39)
Don't get me wrong, I like Elton Brand. I do. But Philly got to the playoffs last year by trapping and running off of turnovers. Not exactly Elton's forte. Also, I can't help but think that having EB down low on offense means less open floor for slashers like Iggy, Thaddeus Young and Andre Miller.

New York Knicks (25-57)
OK, here's where it starts to get ugly. D'Antoni wants to play uptempo but he's got a roster full of slugs. Only Jamal Crawford, David Lee and Wilson Chandler are good fits. Everyone else is available for sixty cents on the dollar. On the bright side, those slugs will get plenty of shots to pad their stats, making them easier to deal.

New Jersey Nets (23-59)
Is Vince Carter really the guy you want around your young, impressionable players? Expect VC to get moved when the Nets drop out of contention...by the third week of the season.



CENTRAL DIVISION
Detroit Pistons (57-25)
Joe Dumars has a reputation for recognizing talent. I'm quite certain that Kwame Brown has absolutely no talent whatsoever. Fortunately, this squad still has Rip, Chauncey, Rasheed and a strong crop of emerging youngsters on the bench, led by Maxiell and Stuckey. If they underachieve, look for Joe D to trade Sheed or Billups and build around Tayshaun. More likely is a return to the Finals, where they'll lose to the Hornets.

Cleveland Cavaliers (50-32)
Nervous days ahead for Danny Ferry. With Lebron's momentous stay/go decision looming, the GMs big signings lately have been Mo Williams and Lorenzen Wright. Eeesh. And it's difficult to picture getting much more mileage out of Big Z. The guess here is that James stays put but not without seriously considering his options first (think Kobe and the Clips a few years back).

Chicago Bulls (42-40)
Ben Gordon's got a legit gripe. Larry Hughes is making twelve mil a year. Nocioni's getting eight. Pax finally paid Luol Deng (smart move) but appears to be content letting Gordon walk, forgetting that two years ago, Gordon scored more points in the fourth quarter than anyone not named Bryant or James. Rookie Derrick Rose should be good enough to make Kirk Hinrich expendable.

Indiana Pacers (33-49)
Jim O'Brien's offense requires good three point shooters. So the team acquired TJ Ford and Jarrett Jack, neither of whom can shoot a lick. Genius. Danny Granger continues to look amazing next to the plodding Dunleavy and Murphy. The Pacers boast the worst pivot platoon in the league with Foster/Nesterovic/Hibbert/Harrison.

Milwaukee Bucks (24-58)
Where to start? Overpaid for Bogut. Obtained Luke Ridnour to be the starting PG. Drafted Joe Alexander way too high. Additionally, I don't see Skiles and Redd getting along. This front office consistently makes awful decisions.

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
Orlando Magic (47-35)
Despite another growth spurt by Dwight Howard, the Magic will discover they can't rely on PG Jameer Nelson. Hedo and Rashard Lewis will do what they do- make threes in bunches and play porous defense. Stan Van can coach, though, and that ensures them another division title, if nothing else.

Miami Heat (46-36)
With DWade back at full-strength, the Heat will be competitive once again. Beasley will do just fine on offense but struggle to match up with power forwards, infuriating Riley. Props for the James Jones signing- shrewd move. Not so much with Jamaal Magloire. Hey, Riles- how about Marion for Odom?

Washington Wizards (44-38)
Is Gil Arenas healthy? Butler and Jamison will do their thing, as always. The real problems lie with the less-than-stellar bigs (Haywood and Thomas).

*Note: Arenas just had knee surgery AGAIN and will miss the first month of the season- ouch.

Atlanta Hawks (40-42)
Continued progress by Al Horford means they'll vie for that 8-spot again. Losing Childress makes their bench wafer-thin, however. Seriously, name someone on Atlanta's bench.

Charlotte Bobcats (30-52)
Why exactly is Michael Jordan a GM? Expect a bumpy first year for Larry Brown as he discovers that few of the fellas on MJ's roster 'play the game the right way.' Could be some more crying from Adam Morrison on the horizon.