One Pickup Game For All The Marbles

Hypothetical situation here. Let's just say that you (the well-informed fan) and I were coaches who were picking a starting five for one pickup game that would determine which of us survived. Winning coach lives, loser dies. No salary implications or long-term injury concerns. No drafting by position. Street ball- call your own fouls, no FTs, no flops.

One game for the right to keep breathing air.

I'd choose Kobe Bryant first (it's my blog so I get first pick but you get the second two, alternating after that). You would probably choose LeBron James and Dwight Howard. Am I right? Here's how the rest of the top-10 might shake out:

My five- (1) Kobe, (4) Tim Duncan, (6) Chris Paul, (8) Kevin Durant, (10) Shaq

'Your' five- (2) LeBron, (3) Dwight Howard, (5) Dwyane Wade, (7) Deron Williams, (9) Chris Bosh

Nash and Nowitzki are the obvious omissions here. Both are weak sauce on D so I wouldn't take 'em. But you might. And my team would then beat your team.

Ordinarily KG would be chosen for sure but lingering doubts about his health held him back. Chauncey Billups barely missed the cut. And it's worth noting that I drafted Shaq simply to contend with Howard. And like I said, no FTs. Heh heh.

Who'd win? Would you choose differently?

Pictured: #1 overall

The Big Ifs: Who Could Topple LA?

Now that LA has Ron Ron, it's a widely held belief that Kobe and company will be hoisting another trophy next season. Here's a list of some Big Ifs- what each contender would need to have happen in order to topple the champs.

Boston could win the title if KG reverts to his MVP-form of 2004. Pretty unlikely given his age and the severity of his recent knee injury.

Orlando could win the title if Vince Cancer learns to take good shots and play defense for the first time in his 12 year career. VC's always had the tools so why has his career been pockmarked by fadeaway 3s and total apathy on the defensive end? Dude's got no heart.

San Antonio could win the title if Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker stay healthy. It goes without saying that Tim Duncan would also have to put up typical Duncan numbers on both ends. That team is nothing without him at full strength.

Cleveland could win the title if Shaq reports to camp in shape and plays at least 75 games. Much of O'Neal's reputation as a lousy P&R defender is a result of showing up fat and lazy, year after year.

Portland could win the title if Greg Oden contends for Defensive Player Of The Year. In order for Oden to accomplish this tall task, he'll have to start and play at least 30 minutes a game. Hear that, Nate? No more starting Prezbo. Throw the kid in there and let him sink or swim. Leave him in the game when he picks up two fouls in the first. Make it a priority to get him as many minutes as possible.

Denver could win the title if Nene leads the league in rebounding. Actually, scratch that. Denver can't win the title. Who am I kidding? No team with a forward playing center ever wins a ring.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The 2004 Pistons had Ben Wallace at C. Depending on your point of view, this may or may not disprove my theory above.

I'm sure some of you are thinking "Where's Utah?" Or "What about Atlanta?" "The Suns have got a shot." This is probably because you live in those cities and have an unreasonable expectation for their success based on pure homerism. I'm sorry. Your team will win nothing next year. As usual. Enjoy your one (or possibly two) playoff series.

Pictured: KG circa 2004 accepting the Podoloff in a fancy lab coat

Loose Balls- Tuesday

*Yao might be done for next season and possibly his entire career, according to Bucher. Barring a trade, it looks like Houston will have to play Scola at center, not a winning formula in the ultra-competitive West where it'll take 45-50 wins to get into the postseason again.

*Carlos Boozer is supposedly weighing his options, trying to decide whether or not to opt out of his contract with Utah. C'mon. Of course he will. That's what he does. It's in his nature. The scorpion will always sting the frog and Carlos Boozeface will always bail out and break your team's heart.

UPDATE: Boozer just announced he's staying for another year...THEN he'll leave for more money. My bad.

*NY's plan to lure LeBron away from Cleveland next year is not going well. At all. Anyone really think a lineup of Darko, Duhon, Wilson Chandler, Lil' Nate and David Lee is going to turn his head? Me, neither. In fact, it reminds me a lot of the Cavs squad that LBJ inherited as a rook.

*By dumping Vince Cancer, the (Brooklyn) Nets have reduced their 2010 payroll to $38.

*Shaquille O'Neal changes the gameplan for Cleveland. On offense, he'll get a chance to initiate plays from the low post, kicking out to spot up shooters or dumping the ball in to cutters. This likely means less wear and tear on LeBron, which is a good thing. Shaq's propensity for attacking the rim will also draw more fouls on opposing centers (Dwight Howard, specifically) than having Big Z shooting 20-footers. This is also a plus. They'll still have problems defending the P&R but overall, a good move by Ferry (can't believe I just typed that).

*Hedo Turkoglu reportedly turned down a 35/mil extension to stay in Orlando. The club obviously saw this coming or they wouldn't have gone after VC. Most sportwriters seem to think this improves the Magic. I disagree. Turk's ability to initiate the offense and shoot over the top of the high screen/roll is why they beat Cleveland. I don't think that they should have given Hedo 10 mil or anything but now they're spending max money on one of the worst locker room guys in NBA history. FAIL.

*Lots of buzz about Portland's interest in Turk. Seems like a bad fit to me. Turk's best with the rock in his hands. So's Brandon Roy. Why would Pritchard overspend for a spot-up shooter and poor defender who's already 30 years old? I like Turk but not at the money he'll be asking for. KP needs to save that cash for a top-tier point guard. No, I don't mean Andre Miller.

*The Indiana Pacers chose dorky white guy Tyler Hansbrough in the lottery. Psycho T joins Dunleavy, Murphy, Diener, Foster, McRoberts and Nesterovic to form the dorkiest, whitest roster in recent memory (holla back, Minneapolis Lakers). AND they're still looking to move Marquis Daniels and Tinsley. That's two more open spots for slow-footed Caucasians! A name change seems in order. The Indiana Puffy Clouds. Or maybe The Indiana White Knights. Goathair from Blowtorch might suggest The Hans-Bros.

Pictured: Bird's wet dream team

Zo: Always The Bridesmaid

Alonzo Mourning officially announced his retirement today, ending a brilliant career filled with numerous individual accolades, most notably winning Defensive Player Of The Year twice for the Miami Heat (1999 and 2000). He was a seven-time All-Star. And as you'll probably recall, Zo also picked up a championship ring with the Heat in 2006 as Shaquille O'Neal's backup.

How appropriate for a guy who spent his entire career chasing Shaq.

He was drafted second behind Shaq in 1992. He finished second to Shaq for Rookie Of The Year. He had a very public beef with Shaq that reeked of jealousy.

His legacy will be that of the brave warrior who survived a life-threatening kidney disease. He might even be remembered for dragging Jeff Van Gundy around while trying to bitchslap Larry Johnson. But as a player, he was always overshadowed by the larger-than-life O'Neal.

Oden: Somewhere Between Diesel And Darko

I've heard the word 'bust' thrown around with alarming regularity where Blazers center Greg Oden is concerned. I've watched enough Portland games this year to tell you right now that Greg Oden will NOT be a bust. He's a solid rebounder and shot blocker. He's a good guy who works hard. His teammates love him. And he's quite popular with drunk white chicks.



Now for the bad news.

Comparing his first year stats to those of other high profile pivots is a sobering endeavor. Granted, right now Oden is being outplayed by Joel Przybilla (who's shooting over 80% from the field, for fuck's sake!) so he's not getting a full 30-40 minutes of PT. Oden's also fouling a lot, which rookies tend to do. But if the first third of this season is any indication, Oden will certainly not be one of the all time greats when all is said and done.

Here's Oden's 'big man' numbers to date:
8 pts, 8 rebs, 1.5 blks

Kind of underwhelming, yes?

Now here's the rookie statlines for other famous centers chosen in the lottery:

Shaq
23, 14, 3.5
Dominant immediately. The Diesel was a superstar from day 1.

Mutombo
16.6, 12.3, 3
Interestingly enough, Deke posted his best numbers ever in his rookie campaign.

Dwight Howard
12, 10, 1.7
Has improved steadily every year. Hopefully, Oden will mirror this rise.

Patrick Ewing
20, 9, 2
Money from the jump, although he continued to develop the J and improve his range.

Hakeem Olajuwon
20, 12, 2.6
I can't tell you how many times I've heard experts say that The Dream was 'raw as a rookie'. 20 and 12 is raw? Fuck you.

Bill Russell
14.7, 19.6
The NBA didn't keep track of blocks in Russell's day. But look at that gaudy rebounding total!

Erick Dampier
5, 4, 1
A career scrub. Started that way, will end that way. Makes me mad when people compare Oden to this douchebag.

Rik Smits
11, 6, 1.8
The Dunkin' Dutchman. Worst nickname ever. Developed into an All-Star after a mediocre beginning, though.

Big Z Ilgauskus
14, 9, 1.6
Hasn't changed much, in skill or appearance. Here's Z on draft day (pictured).



Shawn Bradley
10, 6, 3
See my column about the NBA's Biggest Asshole.

Kwame Brown
4.5, 3.5
Jordan called him a pussy. Years later, so did Phil Jackson. They were both right. What a shocker that he's not working out for Detroit.

Michael Olowokandi
9, 8, 1.2
Yikes. These are eerily similar to what Oden's numbers look like.

Andrew Bogut
9, 7, 1
The Bucks drafted this Aussie dork over CP3 and Deron Williams. Double doh!

Darko Milicic
1.4, 1.2, .4
Speaking of draft day mistakes, Dumars chose this dumbfuck ahead of Melo and DWade.

Chris Kaman
6, 6, 1
I can't say anything. Kaman's too easy a target.

Tyson Chandler
6, 5, 1.3
A skinny teenager straight out of high school. Now look at him- one the league's best defenders and rebounders.

I picture Oden gaining steam and finishing the year closer to 13/10/2, which would put him in the Big Z/Rik Smits/Dwight Howard category for rookie production. I'm not sure that justifies a number one overall selection, though. Ten years from now, will we look back and mock Portland for passing on Al Horford?

Western Conference Predictions 2008/9

The big Qs- Is Bynumite the missing piece? Does Posey put the Hornets over the top? Are the Spurs done? Is this the year Ron Ron eats a baby?

Pacific Division
Los Angeles Lakers (62-20)
With Bynum back in the fold, they'll finish with the best record in the league. But without dealing one of their PFs (Odom, Gasol) for a versatile 3 (like Marion), they won't have the defensive balance to win a title. I also wonder who'll fill in for Turiaf as the energy guy off the bench. I'm seeing a Game 7 loss in the Western Conference Finals. And another MVP for Kobe, bad pinkie and all.

Phoenix Suns (58-24)
Even with all the chaos Steve Kerr hath wrought, this team still has Nash, Amare and Barbosa. That should be good enough for their customary heartbreaking loss in the 2nd round of the playoffs. The most interesting plotline here: is this Shaq's last season? And if so, what's his legacy- Most Dominant Ever or egomaniacal stooge?

*Note- Shaq just announced he plans to play two more seasons.

Los Angeles Clippers (45-37)
The Baron/Brand Conspiracy Gone Wrong was the story of the summer. And I'm still amazed that they got Camby from Denver for a 2nd round pick. Things were actually looking good until they signed Ricky Davis and Jason Williams, the basketball equivalent of having SARS and Avian Bird Flu in the locker room.

*Note- Jason Williams announced he's retiring. Add another couple wins to LA's predicted total.

Golden State Warriors (28-54)
Went from tantalizing to terrible in a month. This Monta Ellis fiasco couldn't come at a worse time. And if they were gonna spend that much dough on Maggette, why didn't they just pay Baron in the first place? A real botch job by Mullin. Silver lining: rookie Anthony Randolph was dominant in Summer League (but then again, so was Koko Archibong).

Sacramento Kings (19-63)
No cowbells ringing this year. Their two best players, Kevin Martin and John Salmons, play the same position. They traded Artest for an old, hobbled Bobby Jackson. Brad Miller still can't guard a chair. Bye bye, Reggie Theus. Nice knowing you. Maybe you can go back into modeling.



Southwest Division
New Orleans Hornets (60-22)
They won't sneak up on anybody this year. But the addition of Posey provides another tested playoff performer and perimeter defender, both important qualities they lacked. Another season of chemistry between CP3, West and Chandler leads to Byron Scott's first championship as a coach.

Houston Rockets (58-24)
The fragile bodies of Yao and TMac keep Houston from being a true contender, even with madman Artest on board. And Rafer Alston isn't a leader by any stretch of the imagination. Their roster is deep, though. If all the cards fall into place, they could be scary. More likely, they play well in spurts that coincide with the everchanging moods of Ron Ron.

San Antonio Spurs (54-28)
First, the bad: Ginobili's injury means they'll start slow. Bruce Bowen is 37 so his days as a stopper are coming to an end. Michael Finley remains one of the least effective starters in the league. The good: Duncan's still only 32. Parker's still Parker. Popovich remains one of the game's best coaches. Ditto for Buford as GM. So even with bad omens everywhere, they could still hoist another trophy in June.

Dallas Mavericks (46-36)
Jason Kidd is a shadow of his former self. I'm a Carlisle fan but I don't see how much more he can get out of this aging bunch who seem to have left their collective heart in Miami two years ago. They still play pansy-ass, jump shooting basketball, not a recipe for success in a man's league. Dirk continues his downward career arc from 'the next Larry Bird' to 'the next Tom Chambers.'

Memphis Grizzlies (12-70)
Worst team in basketball, right here. Other than Rudy Gay, they've got nothing. OJ Mayo will have every opportunity to show the world what a slightly-above-average basketball player he is. Subtract an additional three wins if the Zach Randolph trade goes through. Mike Conley continues to develop...very...slowly. As Yoda would say, 'Unwatchable, they will be.'

Northwest Division
Utah Jazz (55-27)
So predictable, so efficient, so boring. Another solid year for DWilliams and Boozer. Another year of hard fouls from Harpring. Another year of wifeswapping for Kirilenko. Yawn.



Portland Trail Blazers (50-32)
Tough luck: as soon as Oden comes back, Brandon Roy goes down. Expect things to start clicking around mid-season as Rudy Fernandez gets comfy and everyone's healthy at the same time. Still think they should've kept James Jones, though. Oden averages 13/10/3 to edge Beasley for ROY.

Denver Nuggets (38-44)
Blow 'em up, start over. Without Camby in the middle, this team will give up 180 points a game. No way they finish the season with Melo, Iverson AND George Karl on the payroll. When your biggest offseason move is giving a fat contract to JR Smith, you know you're fucked. Maybe Kenyon Martin will punch Nene again. At least that'd be exciting.

Minnesota Timberwolves (24-58)
Let the Kevin Love era begin. I'm sure he'll win a handful of games with his artful outlet passes alone. I keeeed, I keeeeed. It'll be more of the same drudgery in 'Sota as McHale proves again his complete ineptitude at drafting. Mike Miller seems to be making a career of scoring points on dreadful teams. He's like the Kelly Tripucka of this generation.

Oklahoma City Thunder (18-64)
Fuck Clay Bennett. That douchebag doesn't deserve Kevin Durant. Or sold out arenas. May the ghost of Detlef Schremph eternally haunt this franchise.

Collective Shrugs For Departing Scrubs

Add Earl Boykins to the list of marginal players who are bailing on the NBA for better contract offers overseas, joining such fan favorites as Carlos Arroyo, Bostjan Nachbar, Nenad Krstic, Carlos Delfino, Josh Childress and Juan Carlos Navarro.

When Josh Childress is the biggest name on any list, you know it's a non-issue.

Here's a picture of Shaq preparing to EAT Earl Boykins.

'C'mere, Lil' Boykins. Get into my belly!'

Setting Of The Suns

Steve Kerr is gonna get roasted for the pending Suns collapse. Even though Shawn Marion was gonna leave anyway. Even though Steve Nash looks positively geriatric chasing Tony Parker around. Even though Shaq seems to get fatter by the minute. With all these factors at work, Kerr will still shoulder all of the blame. Why? Because he made The Trade. D'Antoni might be the goat, the guy who gets the hatchet, but not the blame.

Is it deserved? Actually, no. No team is owed a championship. Just because a team spends money, wins a lot of games, sells out their arena, they're not SUPPOSED to win a title. There's only one ring per season and we've certainly witnessed our share of amazing teams to never win one. Stockton/Malone's Utah squads are probably the best example. Clyde's Blazer teams of the 90s. Kemp/GP's Sonics. I think Phoenix is about to be lumped into this dubious category: Most Impressive Also-Ran.

I give Kerr credit for realizing that the window was closing and that it would take more than last year's team to get it done. He made the move for Shaq and rolled the dice. That took a lot of balls. But unless The Suns pulls off an historic Red Sox-like resurgence and win four straight(they won't), this experiment is officially a failure and Kerr's the one with egg on his face.