Thunder- Latest Team Of The Future

Congratulations and hearty backslaps to the Oklahoma City Thunder (AKA SuperStolens, Zombie Sonics), the NBA's latest team of tomorrow. With an impressive showing against the defending champs, the Thunder staked their claim to being the squad that everyone's picking to win the title five years from now. Yes, the future looks bright for Durant and company.

The only snag is that the future never arrives. As Buckaroo Banzai once famously said, "Wherever you go, there you are." And where the Thunder are right now is home watching someone else compete for the title.

Think I'm being harsh? Ask the New Orleans Hornets about the future. Ask Greg Oden and the Blazers. Ask the Arenas/Jamison/Butler Wizards. Stuff happens. People get injured. Egos clash.

In 1997, Michael Jordan tabbed the Washington Bullets, a band of pups led by Chris Webber, Rod Strickland and Juwan Howard, the "team of the future." Yeah, that worked out well. A year later, C-Webb was shipped to Sacto, where he formed the nucleus of yet another champion-to-be (fittingly the runner-up in Ball Don't Lie's also-rans of the Aughts column).

Who can forget the promising triumvirate of Kidd/Mashburn/Jackson (The Big 3 In Big D- sounds like bad porn) supposedly being splintered by Toni Braxton? Y'know, Toni Braxton. Yeah.

After soundly thumping LeBron's Cavs in the Finals in '07, Tim Duncan consoled James by telling him, "Some day you're going to own this league." From a marketing perspective, Timmy was spot-on. Four years later, however, the King is still without his crown. Maybe that could change this year. Maybe not. The prodigious Orlando Magic, fresh off their own disappointing turn in the Finals, stand in their way.

And of course, waiting out West are the game's biggest clutch performer and its greatest coach. No, I'm not talking about Channing Frye and Alvin Gentry.

Spiritual and holistic types are constantly reminding us to stay in the moment. "All we have is right now." I prefer John Lennon's way of looking at it: "Life is what happens when you're busy making plans."

Pictured: Bullet Boys (sorry, no Kip Winger)

When Greg Oden Went Down...

When Greg Oden went down, all twenty thousand Blazer fans in attendance thought the same thing: "Oh, shit. We're fucked." When the big man crumpled to the floor, the team instantly became a non-factor in this year's playoff race. Brandon Roy morphed back into a volume shooter. Andre Miller's playing time became a non-issue. The Sam Bowie label stuck. And Kevin Pritchard kicked himself again for not choosing Kevin Durant.

Realistically, this could be the last we see of Oden. We're talking about a guy who previously destroyed his other knee getting off his couch. He's like Samuel Jackson's character in Unbreakable. It seems improbable that he'll ever be sturdy enough to play professional sports. If you're Pritchard, do you resign Oden to big money after this season knowing how fragile he is? Hell, no. If Oden does eventually come back, it probably won't be in a Blazer uniform.

It's a sad day for Portland fans any way you look at it. No way this team competes for a title without Oden. No way. In fact, it's entirely possible they drop out of the playoff race altogether. Without Nic Batum, Charles Outlaw AND Oden, they're forced to rely on suspect talent like Juwan Howard, Jerryd Bayless and Dante Cunningham. Get ready for a long winter.

NOTE: meant to say 'Travis Outlaw' (not 'Charles') in paragraph above. Thanks to my legion of aggro fact checkers in the comments below. LOL.

Pictured: Oden and Durant

The Big Ifs: Who Could Topple LA?

Now that LA has Ron Ron, it's a widely held belief that Kobe and company will be hoisting another trophy next season. Here's a list of some Big Ifs- what each contender would need to have happen in order to topple the champs.

Boston could win the title if KG reverts to his MVP-form of 2004. Pretty unlikely given his age and the severity of his recent knee injury.

Orlando could win the title if Vince Cancer learns to take good shots and play defense for the first time in his 12 year career. VC's always had the tools so why has his career been pockmarked by fadeaway 3s and total apathy on the defensive end? Dude's got no heart.

San Antonio could win the title if Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker stay healthy. It goes without saying that Tim Duncan would also have to put up typical Duncan numbers on both ends. That team is nothing without him at full strength.

Cleveland could win the title if Shaq reports to camp in shape and plays at least 75 games. Much of O'Neal's reputation as a lousy P&R defender is a result of showing up fat and lazy, year after year.

Portland could win the title if Greg Oden contends for Defensive Player Of The Year. In order for Oden to accomplish this tall task, he'll have to start and play at least 30 minutes a game. Hear that, Nate? No more starting Prezbo. Throw the kid in there and let him sink or swim. Leave him in the game when he picks up two fouls in the first. Make it a priority to get him as many minutes as possible.

Denver could win the title if Nene leads the league in rebounding. Actually, scratch that. Denver can't win the title. Who am I kidding? No team with a forward playing center ever wins a ring.

EDITOR'S NOTE: The 2004 Pistons had Ben Wallace at C. Depending on your point of view, this may or may not disprove my theory above.

I'm sure some of you are thinking "Where's Utah?" Or "What about Atlanta?" "The Suns have got a shot." This is probably because you live in those cities and have an unreasonable expectation for their success based on pure homerism. I'm sorry. Your team will win nothing next year. As usual. Enjoy your one (or possibly two) playoff series.

Pictured: KG circa 2004 accepting the Podoloff in a fancy lab coat

Oden: Somewhere Between Diesel And Darko

I've heard the word 'bust' thrown around with alarming regularity where Blazers center Greg Oden is concerned. I've watched enough Portland games this year to tell you right now that Greg Oden will NOT be a bust. He's a solid rebounder and shot blocker. He's a good guy who works hard. His teammates love him. And he's quite popular with drunk white chicks.



Now for the bad news.

Comparing his first year stats to those of other high profile pivots is a sobering endeavor. Granted, right now Oden is being outplayed by Joel Przybilla (who's shooting over 80% from the field, for fuck's sake!) so he's not getting a full 30-40 minutes of PT. Oden's also fouling a lot, which rookies tend to do. But if the first third of this season is any indication, Oden will certainly not be one of the all time greats when all is said and done.

Here's Oden's 'big man' numbers to date:
8 pts, 8 rebs, 1.5 blks

Kind of underwhelming, yes?

Now here's the rookie statlines for other famous centers chosen in the lottery:

Shaq
23, 14, 3.5
Dominant immediately. The Diesel was a superstar from day 1.

Mutombo
16.6, 12.3, 3
Interestingly enough, Deke posted his best numbers ever in his rookie campaign.

Dwight Howard
12, 10, 1.7
Has improved steadily every year. Hopefully, Oden will mirror this rise.

Patrick Ewing
20, 9, 2
Money from the jump, although he continued to develop the J and improve his range.

Hakeem Olajuwon
20, 12, 2.6
I can't tell you how many times I've heard experts say that The Dream was 'raw as a rookie'. 20 and 12 is raw? Fuck you.

Bill Russell
14.7, 19.6
The NBA didn't keep track of blocks in Russell's day. But look at that gaudy rebounding total!

Erick Dampier
5, 4, 1
A career scrub. Started that way, will end that way. Makes me mad when people compare Oden to this douchebag.

Rik Smits
11, 6, 1.8
The Dunkin' Dutchman. Worst nickname ever. Developed into an All-Star after a mediocre beginning, though.

Big Z Ilgauskus
14, 9, 1.6
Hasn't changed much, in skill or appearance. Here's Z on draft day (pictured).



Shawn Bradley
10, 6, 3
See my column about the NBA's Biggest Asshole.

Kwame Brown
4.5, 3.5
Jordan called him a pussy. Years later, so did Phil Jackson. They were both right. What a shocker that he's not working out for Detroit.

Michael Olowokandi
9, 8, 1.2
Yikes. These are eerily similar to what Oden's numbers look like.

Andrew Bogut
9, 7, 1
The Bucks drafted this Aussie dork over CP3 and Deron Williams. Double doh!

Darko Milicic
1.4, 1.2, .4
Speaking of draft day mistakes, Dumars chose this dumbfuck ahead of Melo and DWade.

Chris Kaman
6, 6, 1
I can't say anything. Kaman's too easy a target.

Tyson Chandler
6, 5, 1.3
A skinny teenager straight out of high school. Now look at him- one the league's best defenders and rebounders.

I picture Oden gaining steam and finishing the year closer to 13/10/2, which would put him in the Big Z/Rik Smits/Dwight Howard category for rookie production. I'm not sure that justifies a number one overall selection, though. Ten years from now, will we look back and mock Portland for passing on Al Horford?

Loose Balls- Tuesday

CAVS: FORCE OR FLUKE?
Cleveland's sitting purty atop the Central at 10-3 but a closer look at their schedule shows that they've beaten up on patsies (Charlotte, Indy) while losing to the league's elite (Boston, New Orleans). Sure, they defeated Utah, but only because the Jazz were playing without Deron Williams, Memo Okur and AK47. The Cavs November and December calendar is softer than tissue paper but we'll know after a tough stretch in January that features the Lakers, Hornets and Jazz whether or not Cleveland's legit.

CLIPS/KNICKS: AFFAIRS OF THE HEART
The Zach Randolph for Cuttino Mobley/Tim Thomas trade has apparently hit a snag because of questions over Mobley's heart, SI reports. Certainly the irony isn't lost on hoops fans who've watched Z-Bo meander through eight full seasons of basketball with absolutely no heart whatsoever.

BLAZERS/KINGS GET FUGLY
This article in the Oregonian perfectly sums up the shitfest that was last night's Portland/Sacto 'contest.' Brandon Roy- good. Everything else in this game- putrid. Greg Oden looked completely lost trying to guard the Kings bigs (Brad Miller and Spencer 'Lil' Brad' Hawes) out on the perimeter. And is it just me, or is Lil' Brad pulling a 'Single White Female' and totally stealing Big Brad's look?

Pictured: Big Brad & Lil' Brad jump around against NO

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

The season's officially underway and already there are a handful of great plotlines developing.

The Good
The Lakers have blown out the Blazers and Clippers and looked dominant in doing so. Their defense has been disruptive, allowing them to get out and run. Also, using Lamar Odom as a sixth man is working out swimmingly so far for Phil Jackson.

Pop's Beard also came out of the gates strong. In addition to covering up his acne, the beard also makes Pop look kind of like Bill Murray (and that's a good thing).

The pic below isn't actually Pop (duh). I couldn't find any shots of his new beard so you'll have to live with this one.



Rudy Fernandez showed he's ready to play right now for Portland. Don't be surprised to see the rook starting soon, moving Roy to point and Blake to the bench.

Paul Pierce and Lebron James continued their burgeoning rivalry with epic performances on opening night.

The Bad
Bruce Bowen in an NBA Cares commercial. Lame. Not cool. If the NBA really cared, they'd suspend Bowen more often for his kicks, punches, trips, pokes and overall douchebaggery.

Speaking of commercials, why is the NBA running their 'where (insert cliche) happens' campaign again? Are they out of money? I want a new campaign, damn it! By the end of last year, that repetitive piano interlude was cringe inducing. Hearing it again on opening night made me want to kill myself.

What's up with Luke Walton only getting four minutes off the bench against Portland? Doghouse?

No Robert Horry to be found. I guess he's retired, officially. Maybe he'll pull a PJ Brown and sign on for a short season with a contender. Be nice to see him back with LA.

The Ugly
Memphis scoring 71 against Houston. OJ Mayo going 5-20. Bet Heisley's glad he traded Kevin Love AND Mike Miller for this kid. When you're getting swindled by Kevin McHale, maybe it's time to quit the business.

Greg Oden's debut was frightening on several levels. For the few minutes he was actually on the court, he looked awkward and skittish, especially on offense. Then, of course, he got injured again. This time he's out 2-4 weeks. Jury's still out on the brittle big man, although my money's on him getting it together in time to win that ROY trophy.

And in closing I'd also like to give a big fuck you to David Stern and his opening night party for the Oklahoma City Super Stolens. Attention, fans of the Milwaukee Bucks (insert laughter here): King Stern has you on his radar. Better build a new arena or the next team stolen might be yours.

We're Number 1!

Being the number one overall pick in the NBA Draft is a pretty big deal. But if you get picked #1 and you CAN'T PLAY, it speaks volumes about not only you, but all the people who put their necks on the line vouching for you. Simply put, the guy who goes number one overall should be a superstar, if not immediately then at least within a year or two. Anything short of that and people start getting fired.

With the 2007/8 season a few short months away, I start wondering whether Greg Oden will become the superstar everyone (including me) expects him to be.

Or will he be the next Kwame Brown, a colossal mistake/failure/disappointment that sinks franchises and kills careers?



So I dug up the #1 overall list for the past 20 years. Check it out:

2006 Bargnani, Raptors
2005 Bogut, Bucks
2004 D Howard, Magic
2003 Lebron, Cavs
2002 Yao, Rockets
2001 Kwame, Wizards
2000 KMart, Nets
1999 Elton Brand, Bulls
1998 Kandi Man, Clips
1997 Duncan, Spurs
1996 Iverson, Sixers
1995 Joe Smith, Warriors
1994 Big Dog, Bucks
1993 CWebb, ended up at GState
1992 Shaq, Magic
1991 LJ, Charlotte
1990 Derrick Coleman, Nets
1989 Pervis Ellison, Sacto
1988 Danny Manning, Clips
1987 David Robinson, Spurs

Looking at the list, only Lebron, Duncan, Iverson, Shaq and David Robinson would qualify as superstars. Yao's OK. CWebb in his prime was pretty good and Brand's been solid for a few years running now but overall, you find a suprising lack of dominant players. Howard might get there with some polish but currently, he can barely shoot and dribble.

Bargnani and Bogut...hmmm. Too early to tell but so far, I'm not that impressed. Both are capable but hardly worth mentioning in the same breath with the elite group above. Bogut's kinda Brad Miller-ish or Vlade-esque, a good passer who 'understands' the game but 'lacks atheticism'- effective but underwhelming. In other words, not the kind of guy who wins championships. And Bargnani could either be the next Nowitzki or the next Raef Lafrentz, depending on who you ask. For a seven footer, he spends a lot of time fading away from beyond the arc.

Guys like Kenyon Martin, LJ, Derrick Coleman, Danny Manning- they got screwed by injuries and never fulfilled their potential so I give them a pass.

But Kwame, Olowokandi, Joe Smith and Pervis Ellison? THESE GUYS SUCK! How did an entire organization of experts agree to pick these bozos over players like Vince Carter, Rasheed Wallace, Nowitzki or Kevin Garnett? How did that happen? Somebody tell me, please.