NBA HAZ A SAD

Coming Down The Stretch...

With the season 3/4 of the way over, here are my picks to close out their respective categories and take home the hardware:

Champs- As much as it pains me to say this, I have to give the nod to the Cavs right now. They're too big for the Bynum-less Lakers and too deep for the Posey-less Celtics. I also think that Joe Smith is better for that offense than Ben Wallace. Smith's like a poor man's Horace Grant- a good rebounder and post defender who nails the 15 footer consistently. Delonte West and Mo Williams know their roles and make open 3s. Big Z's great on the offensive glass. I don't see anyone beating them.

MVP- Lebron over Kobe. James was already one of the best offensive players in the league. This season, he proved he can play All-Star caliber D. That said, if Cleveland hits a lull over the final few weeks, Kobe could catch fire and snatch his second Podoloff in a row. Props to DWade, Brandon Roy and Dwight Howard but it's a two-man race between James and Bryant.

Defensive Player Of The Year- Howard. Sure, Wade and James learned a thing or two about defense from Kobe at the Olympics but Superman's a rebounding and shot blocking machine.

Most Improved- Everyone's talking about Devin Harris but wasn't he this good last year, too? The player who took the biggest leap this offseason was Howard. The guy went from 'freakish athlete' to 'superstar with potential to be the best ever' in three months. Kevin Durant is going fucking ballistic, too. Think about how much better he'll be when he actually has a muscle or two on that skinny frame. Ironically, Shaq also showed great improvement this year, going from a useless fat bastard to dominant All-Star since hitching up with the Phoenix Suns training staff.

Coach Of The Year- It'll be Mike Brown or Stan Van Gundy but my vote would go to Nate McMillan. Nobody expected anything from Portland (especially with Oden dinged up) but Nate established a great rotation where every player knows his role. He was also smart enough to hand over the reins to Roy, who's proven himself worthy of MVP talk. Big ups to Erik Spoelstra for keeping the Heat over .500 with one of the youngest teams in the NBA.

Executive- How can it NOT be Donnie Walsh? Goodbye, Isiah Thomas, Stephon Marbury and Jerome James. Hello, Mike D'Antoni, Al Harrington and cap room for next year's big free agent run which will net them either Lebron, DWade, Amare or Chris Bosh. Masterful. The Gallinari pick is a blemish but I'll put that one on D'Antoni.

6th Man- Jason Terry or Manu Ginobili will win but I LOVE what Trevor Ariza has done off the bench for LA this year. If they win the title, Ariza will a major reason why. Think about this for a sec: if LA had Ariza in the Finals last year, does Paul Pierce score at will off of isolation plays? Um, no.

Pictured: Ariza posterizing Grant Hill



Rookie- Derrick Rose gets the nod over OJ Mayo, Russell Westbrook and Brook Lopez. I talked shit about both Mayo and Westbrook around draft time, referring to them as Smurfs. I was wrong. They're both really good. I still think Mayo is more Ben Gordon than Michael Jordan but he's not a Smurf, by any means. Sorry. I suck.

The NBA: Where Belt-Tightening Happens, Part 2

ESPN is reporting that the New Orleans Hornets have indeed pulled the trigger on the Tyson Chandler trade/salary dump, effectively ending their chances at winning a title this year.

Pissed-off Hornets fans vent (thanks, TrueHoop).

Yes, Chandler has underachieved and yes, he's overpaid but I can't help but wonder if this desperation move will backfire on the Hornets and cost them CP3 at some point in the not-too-distant future.

David Stern's reaction to the league-wide mess? His own Ponzi Scheme, of course.

Check out my initial belt-tightening post here.

Adios, win column. Hello, Superstolens!

UPDATE: Chandler failed his physical and returned to the Hornets. Management was overjoyed.

The Power Of The Plus/Minus

82games.com is pretty bad ass. Basically, they compile every stat imaginable to give a true indication of actual performance beyond the box score. My favorite stat is plus/minus per 48 minutes, which essentially tracks a player's performance, even in limited minutes, and predicts what kind of an impact that player would have over a full game. The plus/minus isn't just about scoring; it's about the overall effect on both ends of the court and how that translates into winning.

Using 82games data, I went through every team in the league and put together what each team's ideal lineup would be based on this theory. This doesn't mean these players should all be starters but it does mean they should get big minutes and be on the floor when the game's decided. I only included players who were already in the rotation since garbage time stats can be misleading.

What I discovered is that several big name stars would better serve their teams by riding the pine (I'm talking to you, AI).

ATLANTA
Josh Smith's numbers project to an astonishing +19.4 per 48 minutes. This makes him the 2nd most effective player in the entire NBA right now (Lamar Odom's first with 20.1 but more on him later).

Best lineup- Bibby, Johnson, Williams, Smith, Horford

Kudos to Mike Woodson for knowing the numbers and playing his best unit big minutes.

BOSTON
No surprises. KG leads the team at +15.5. Ray Allen's second at 14.8.

Best- Rondo, Allen, Pierce, KG, Perkins

CHARLOTTE
The entire team is in the negative so it's really just a matter of choosing who sucks the least. Also, basketball is a team sport so one good player can't make the other four not suck. Jason Richardson has their best numbers (-0.9), Matt Carroll, their worst (-10.1).

Best- Augustin, Felton, Richardson, Wallace, Okafor

CHICAGO
Andres Nocioni is a winner (+4.8) and should be not only starting but playing huge minutes on a team full of minuses. Thought Derrick Rose was a superstar? Think again- he's -5.5. Vinny Del Negro should also be aware that Drew Gooden's playing 30 minutes a game despite his awful production (-8.2)

Best- Rose, Gordon, Deng, Nocioni, Noah

CLEVELAND
The King lives up to his title with a gaudy +17.3. Delonte West is right on his heels at +15.7

Best- Williams, West, James, Wallace, Z

DALLAS
Contrary to popular belief, Kidd (+7.5) and Dirk (+6.9) are meshing well. The big surprise? Dampier (+10.5) actually has the best number on the team. Who's got the worst? Jerry Craphouse at an abysmal -24.6. In fact, that number makes Craphouse the league's worst player per 48. He's now out of the rotation and asking for a trade.

Best- Kidd, Terry, Howard, Nowitzki, Dampier

Sorry, Craphouse. No minutes for you.



DENVER
Chauncey's leading the team at +7.9. That AI trade's looking better all the time. Linas Kleiza is playing over 20 minutes a game but not producing (-2.8)

Best- Billups, JR Smith (not Dahntay Jones), Melo, Martin, Nene

DETROIT
Speaking of AI, he's at -1.7 and his ballhogging has made Rip Hamilton considerably less effective (-2.6). Stick 'em both on the bench. Arron Afflalo has been excellent (+12.8) in limited minutes- give him a shot.

Best- Stuckey, Afflalo, Prince, Sheed, Amir Johnson

Here's a clear case where the suggested change obviously WON'T happen. No way Curry brings AI or Rip off the bench but according to 82games, the Pistons would have a better chance of winning if he did.

GOLDEN ST
Jamal Crawford is a great example of a guy who puts up numbers that don't translate to wins. Since coming to the Warriors, he's at -12.9. Kelenna Azubuike's pretty awful, too (-8.7). Ronny Turiaf, AKA The Chocolate Moose, is the team's most efficient player at +4.7.

Best- CJ Watson, Maggette, Jax, Turiaf, Biedrins

HOUSTON
Shane Battier only played in a handful of games before getting hurt but his numbers are off the charts (+16.1). Yao's second at +8.5.

Best- Alston, Battier, McGrady, Artest, Yao

Yep, that's a lineup with Ron Ron at PF. Try it out, Adelman. Move Scola to the bench.

INDIANA
Granger (+3.2) and Marquis Daniels (+2.7) are their only good players. Little wonder they're a mediocre ballclub.

Best- Ford, Daniels, Granger, Murphy, Nesterovic

LA CLIPS
Nobody on the positive side. Camby's the closest at -1.4. Kaman (-9) and Ricky Davis (-21.3 for fuck's sake!) are the real reason this club is complete dogshit. Other than Craphouse, Ricky Buckets has been the worst rotation player in the game. I say 'has been' not because he IS ONE but because he hasn't seen significant PT in weeks.

Best- Baron, Gordon, Thornton, Randolph, Camby

LA LAKERS
As previously mentioned, Lamar leads the entire league at +20.1. It should be noted that he's frequently matched up with 2nd unit guys now that he's a 6th man so that stat might need an asterisk. Trevor Ariza's also at an eye-popping +18.2. Kobe's just being Kobe (+14.7). The entire rotation has big numbers but these three are the biggest contributors to the team's 17-2 start.

Best- Fish, Kobe, Ariza, Lamar, Pau

'Only 25 minutes a game for me, Phil? C'mon!'



MEMPHIS
Media darlings OJ Mayo and Rudy Gay (can I just combine their names and call them Ru J Gayo?) get a lot of attention for their big scoring numbers but these two are getting smashed in plus/minus (-7.6 and -8.6 respectively). The team is so bad, they're still the best options for big minutes but neither of these guys should be considered a star by any means. Like Jamal Crawford, they get points but not results. The team's best players? Darko and Hakim Warrick, believe it or not.

Best- Lowry, Mayo, Gay, Warrick, Milicic

MIAMI
Wade (+6.9) and Marion (+5.7) are solid. Michael Beasley's getting ripped in the press but still manages to stay in the black at +1.1.

Best- Chalmers, Wade, Marion, Beasley, Haslem

MILWAUKEE
Sessions is better than Ridnour (+1.1 to -1.1). Charlie Bell is the weak link at -6.7. Rookie Luc Richard Mbaha Moute should be starting.

Best- Sessions, Redd, Jefferson, Mbaha Moute, Bogut

MINNESOTA
Not that Wittless is gone, McFail decides who gets the minutes. The smart money's on benching Gomes (-8.1) and Assy Telfair (-4.9).

Best- Foye, McCants, Miller, Love, Jefferson

NJ NETS
Devin Harris is the only starter playing winning ball. Expect the losses to start piling up any day now. Their best chance of winning is with this lineup (seriously).

Best- Harris, Carter, Hassell, Yi, Lopez

NY KNICKS
No positives. Tim Thomas is the worst at -16. Harrington's at -6.9. Blech.

Best- Duhon, Q, Chandler, Lee, Harrington

OKC SUPERSTOLENS
Earl Watson (-19) and Nick Collison (-22.5) are playing CBA ball out there. Russell Westbrook and Joe Smith are much better options at those positions.

Best- Westbrook, Mason, Durant, Smith, Wilcox

ORLANDO
Michael Pietrus was playing beautifully before getting hurt (+11.8). Good acquisition by Otis Smith (can't believe I just wrote that!).

Best- Nelson, Pietrus, Turk, Rashard, Howard

PHILLY
The numbers seem to indicate that the Sixers are losing mostly due to poor play by their bench, specifically Louis Williams (-6.9). Iggy leads the team at +4.3.

Best- Miller, Iggy, Thaddeus, Brand, Dalembert

PHOENIX
Nash is the best starter at +3.4. Shaq's breaking even. Leandro Barbosa's fallen off a cliff at -7.2. His mother just died so maybe he's having trouble focusing.

Best- Nash, Bell, Barnes, Diaw, Stoudemire (sorry, Shaq)

PORTLAND
Nic Batum (+9.3) and Aldridge (+9.2) lead the team. Prezbo (+6.1) is outplaying Oden (+0.3).

Best- Blake, Roy, Batum, Aldridge, Prezbo

SACTO
Their 'best' is Beno Udrih at -4. Bobby Brown (and I'm not being cruel) is at -12. Rookie Jason Thompson is deserving of some extra burn.

Best- Beno, Salmons, Thompson, Mikki Moore, Brad Miller (in your face, Lil' Brad Hawes)

SPURS
Bonner! +11.7! I'm speechless. Ime Udoka's next at +8.8. So why the slow start? Amazingly, Duncan and Parker are both in the red for the year.

Best- TP, Ginobili, Udoka, Bonner, Duncan

TORONTO
Kris Humphries and Jamario Moon have been their only good players. Bosh and Calderon are both hovering around -2. Jermaine is a weak -5.3.

Best- Calderon, Parker, Moon, Humphries, Bosh

UTAH
AK47 and Paul Millsap have been excellent. DWill and Boozer, even when healthy, have been only so-so.

Best- Williams, Brewer, Kirilenko, Millsap, Okur

WIZ
You know you're fucked when Nick Young and Andray Blatche are your best players. Deshawn Stevenson (-12.1) better grow his beard back or something.

Best- Juan Dixon, Butler, Jamison, Songaila, rookie Javale McGee

So there you have it. Again, not necessarily the best starting units but a strong recommendation for who should be out there in the 4th quarter when the game's on the line.

Thanks, 82games. You rock.

The NBA: Where Belt-Tightening Happens

On the surface, the big stories so far this season are the continued Lakers/Celtics rivalry and the free agent status of superstar Lebron James. But what�s really on everyone�s mind is how the current financial crisis will impact the league long-term. Allow me to indulge is some gloom and doom for a moment�

With attendance dwindling and many small market teams hemorrhaging cash, we might be witnessing the end of the big-spending era where players got 100 million dollar contracts based on potential. The Knicks just basically gave away Jamal Crawford and Zach Randolph for the opportunity to sign James in 2010. According to league reports, as many as 14 teams are lining up to spend their money on Lebron. Yes, he�s one of the best players in the game but he�s also a proven commodity. He�ll sell tickets and help you win games. Practically speaking, that�s a good investment.

Gone are the days when Atlanta would give Jon Koncak 10 mil a season to get 5 points, 8 boards and a block. Gone are the days when Juwan Howard got a six year deal for being Washington�s third best player. In fact, if ticket prices ultimately go down based on poor attendance (makes sense, right?), it�s entirely possible that we�ll see the elimination of the well-paid role player (guys like James Posey or Lamar Odom). To stay profitable, each team would consist of two maxed-out stars and a bunch of minimum wage CBA guys. All those mid-level exception guys would either have to take pay cuts to stay in the league or go look for better deals overseas. Another possibility is that all of the role players play for one-year, non-guaranteed contracts, kind of like the special teams guys in the NFL.

Well paid coaches would probably also get the boot, unless they were winning titles, of course. Mike Dunleavy- gone. Scott Skiles- gone. Rick Carlisle- gone. Now I know this sounds pretty fucking bleak but with the unemployment rate getting higher every day, the average consumer is likely to make cutbacks on spending and I seriously doubt whether even the most hardcore fan would choose hoops tickets over paying the rent.

David Stern, the epitome of corporate douchebaggery, has been frantically trying to set up shop in China so he can jump ship the second it starts sinking. Great leadership there, you prick.

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

The season's officially underway and already there are a handful of great plotlines developing.

The Good
The Lakers have blown out the Blazers and Clippers and looked dominant in doing so. Their defense has been disruptive, allowing them to get out and run. Also, using Lamar Odom as a sixth man is working out swimmingly so far for Phil Jackson.

Pop's Beard also came out of the gates strong. In addition to covering up his acne, the beard also makes Pop look kind of like Bill Murray (and that's a good thing).

The pic below isn't actually Pop (duh). I couldn't find any shots of his new beard so you'll have to live with this one.



Rudy Fernandez showed he's ready to play right now for Portland. Don't be surprised to see the rook starting soon, moving Roy to point and Blake to the bench.

Paul Pierce and Lebron James continued their burgeoning rivalry with epic performances on opening night.

The Bad
Bruce Bowen in an NBA Cares commercial. Lame. Not cool. If the NBA really cared, they'd suspend Bowen more often for his kicks, punches, trips, pokes and overall douchebaggery.

Speaking of commercials, why is the NBA running their 'where (insert cliche) happens' campaign again? Are they out of money? I want a new campaign, damn it! By the end of last year, that repetitive piano interlude was cringe inducing. Hearing it again on opening night made me want to kill myself.

What's up with Luke Walton only getting four minutes off the bench against Portland? Doghouse?

No Robert Horry to be found. I guess he's retired, officially. Maybe he'll pull a PJ Brown and sign on for a short season with a contender. Be nice to see him back with LA.

The Ugly
Memphis scoring 71 against Houston. OJ Mayo going 5-20. Bet Heisley's glad he traded Kevin Love AND Mike Miller for this kid. When you're getting swindled by Kevin McHale, maybe it's time to quit the business.

Greg Oden's debut was frightening on several levels. For the few minutes he was actually on the court, he looked awkward and skittish, especially on offense. Then, of course, he got injured again. This time he's out 2-4 weeks. Jury's still out on the brittle big man, although my money's on him getting it together in time to win that ROY trophy.

And in closing I'd also like to give a big fuck you to David Stern and his opening night party for the Oklahoma City Super Stolens. Attention, fans of the Milwaukee Bucks (insert laughter here): King Stern has you on his radar. Better build a new arena or the next team stolen might be yours.

13 Years Of Fines And Suspensions

Check out this awesome site that lists every NBA fine since 1994/5. For whatever reason, the entire page is done in a weird purple font but it's still great reading, especially the early years and all the controversy you might have forgotten about, like Charles Barkley leading the league in technicals. Or Dennis Rodman's rocky stretch with the Spurs.

Stern Screws Americans While Wooing Chinese

If you've read my previous columns about David Stern (like 'David Stern: World's Biggest Piece Of Shit' or 'Fire David Stern'), then you'd know how I feel about this douchebag. Today he announced that the NBA was laying off 90 people due to the economic crisis. Meanwhile, he continues to spearhead an effort to establish a presence in China.

The NBA. Where made in China happens.

I'm not gonna go off on a political rant but it's common knowledge that one of the reasons our economy's fucked is because of greedy corporations farming American jobs out to countries with no labor laws or minimum wage. As you know, frequently these countries employ children. But Stern doesn't give a shit about human rights violations; he just wants to get paid.

Arenas: The Latest Falling Star

Every year, a new crop of amazing talent comes into the league, each player thinking he's got what it takes to be one of the all-time greats. The statistics tell us that most of these rookies are out of the league in three years or less, on average.

Some end up on teams that are bad fits for their skill set. Some just aren't as good as they thought they were.

And others have bodies that break down on them. This decline is especially sad when the player in question is undoubtedly becoming a star, perhaps a future Hall Of Famer.

Hearing the news about Gilbert Arenas going under the knife again reminded me of other gifted players before him who showed stints of brilliance and then faded away in a rash of debilitating injuries:

Danny Manning- After being drafted #1 overall by the Clippers, Manning blew out his knee 26 games into his rookie season. He recovered to reach All Star status and then promptly tore the ACL on his OTHER knee. He retired after 13 seasons, having spent as much time on the IR as on the court.



Grant Hill- Through his first five seasons in Detroit, Hill had points, rebounds and assists numbers comparable to Oscar Robertson and Larry Bird. Then he broke his ankle so badly that doctors needed to rebreak it and fuse it to the leg. Then he was traded to Orlando, where his huge contract and brittle body made him the object of tremendous ridicule. Now he's missing games for Phoenix.



Derek Smith- You've probably never heard of Derek Smith but I put him on this list because he was a 20 ppg scorer and an All-Star for the Clippers before blowing out his knee. More importantly, he's credited with inventing the high five. Seriously.

So best of luck to Gilbert Arenas. I wish him a full recovery and the opportunity to realize his potential. Chances are, however, that we've seen the best of him already.

Western Conference Predictions 2008/9

The big Qs- Is Bynumite the missing piece? Does Posey put the Hornets over the top? Are the Spurs done? Is this the year Ron Ron eats a baby?

Pacific Division
Los Angeles Lakers (62-20)
With Bynum back in the fold, they'll finish with the best record in the league. But without dealing one of their PFs (Odom, Gasol) for a versatile 3 (like Marion), they won't have the defensive balance to win a title. I also wonder who'll fill in for Turiaf as the energy guy off the bench. I'm seeing a Game 7 loss in the Western Conference Finals. And another MVP for Kobe, bad pinkie and all.

Phoenix Suns (58-24)
Even with all the chaos Steve Kerr hath wrought, this team still has Nash, Amare and Barbosa. That should be good enough for their customary heartbreaking loss in the 2nd round of the playoffs. The most interesting plotline here: is this Shaq's last season? And if so, what's his legacy- Most Dominant Ever or egomaniacal stooge?

*Note- Shaq just announced he plans to play two more seasons.

Los Angeles Clippers (45-37)
The Baron/Brand Conspiracy Gone Wrong was the story of the summer. And I'm still amazed that they got Camby from Denver for a 2nd round pick. Things were actually looking good until they signed Ricky Davis and Jason Williams, the basketball equivalent of having SARS and Avian Bird Flu in the locker room.

*Note- Jason Williams announced he's retiring. Add another couple wins to LA's predicted total.

Golden State Warriors (28-54)
Went from tantalizing to terrible in a month. This Monta Ellis fiasco couldn't come at a worse time. And if they were gonna spend that much dough on Maggette, why didn't they just pay Baron in the first place? A real botch job by Mullin. Silver lining: rookie Anthony Randolph was dominant in Summer League (but then again, so was Koko Archibong).

Sacramento Kings (19-63)
No cowbells ringing this year. Their two best players, Kevin Martin and John Salmons, play the same position. They traded Artest for an old, hobbled Bobby Jackson. Brad Miller still can't guard a chair. Bye bye, Reggie Theus. Nice knowing you. Maybe you can go back into modeling.



Southwest Division
New Orleans Hornets (60-22)
They won't sneak up on anybody this year. But the addition of Posey provides another tested playoff performer and perimeter defender, both important qualities they lacked. Another season of chemistry between CP3, West and Chandler leads to Byron Scott's first championship as a coach.

Houston Rockets (58-24)
The fragile bodies of Yao and TMac keep Houston from being a true contender, even with madman Artest on board. And Rafer Alston isn't a leader by any stretch of the imagination. Their roster is deep, though. If all the cards fall into place, they could be scary. More likely, they play well in spurts that coincide with the everchanging moods of Ron Ron.

San Antonio Spurs (54-28)
First, the bad: Ginobili's injury means they'll start slow. Bruce Bowen is 37 so his days as a stopper are coming to an end. Michael Finley remains one of the least effective starters in the league. The good: Duncan's still only 32. Parker's still Parker. Popovich remains one of the game's best coaches. Ditto for Buford as GM. So even with bad omens everywhere, they could still hoist another trophy in June.

Dallas Mavericks (46-36)
Jason Kidd is a shadow of his former self. I'm a Carlisle fan but I don't see how much more he can get out of this aging bunch who seem to have left their collective heart in Miami two years ago. They still play pansy-ass, jump shooting basketball, not a recipe for success in a man's league. Dirk continues his downward career arc from 'the next Larry Bird' to 'the next Tom Chambers.'

Memphis Grizzlies (12-70)
Worst team in basketball, right here. Other than Rudy Gay, they've got nothing. OJ Mayo will have every opportunity to show the world what a slightly-above-average basketball player he is. Subtract an additional three wins if the Zach Randolph trade goes through. Mike Conley continues to develop...very...slowly. As Yoda would say, 'Unwatchable, they will be.'

Northwest Division
Utah Jazz (55-27)
So predictable, so efficient, so boring. Another solid year for DWilliams and Boozer. Another year of hard fouls from Harpring. Another year of wifeswapping for Kirilenko. Yawn.



Portland Trail Blazers (50-32)
Tough luck: as soon as Oden comes back, Brandon Roy goes down. Expect things to start clicking around mid-season as Rudy Fernandez gets comfy and everyone's healthy at the same time. Still think they should've kept James Jones, though. Oden averages 13/10/3 to edge Beasley for ROY.

Denver Nuggets (38-44)
Blow 'em up, start over. Without Camby in the middle, this team will give up 180 points a game. No way they finish the season with Melo, Iverson AND George Karl on the payroll. When your biggest offseason move is giving a fat contract to JR Smith, you know you're fucked. Maybe Kenyon Martin will punch Nene again. At least that'd be exciting.

Minnesota Timberwolves (24-58)
Let the Kevin Love era begin. I'm sure he'll win a handful of games with his artful outlet passes alone. I keeeed, I keeeeed. It'll be more of the same drudgery in 'Sota as McHale proves again his complete ineptitude at drafting. Mike Miller seems to be making a career of scoring points on dreadful teams. He's like the Kelly Tripucka of this generation.

Oklahoma City Thunder (18-64)
Fuck Clay Bennett. That douchebag doesn't deserve Kevin Durant. Or sold out arenas. May the ghost of Detlef Schremph eternally haunt this franchise.

Eastern Conference Predictions 2008/9

The big Qs- Can Boston repeat? Will Detroit rebuild? Does Lebron leave Cleveland? Does Marion get traded? Why did D'Antoni take that job?

ATLANTIC DIVISION
Boston Celtics (55-27)
Losing James Posey will definitely hurt. Don't forget that throughout their march to the ring, Doc referred to Posey as 'the fourth member of the Big Three', whatever the fuck that means. I'm also expecting slippage due to post-title complacency and the Limberger effect of Darius Miles. No repeat here.

Toronto Raptors (48-34)
Did you know that Jermaine O'Neal makes twenty million dollars this year? That's a lot of scratch for a guy who plays the same position as Chris Bosh. I know, I know, it's the East, 'Jermaine can play center.' But he's not a center, right? He's a power forward, and a brittle one at that. Underrated Anthony (Don't Call Me Candace) Parker and Jamario Moon will continue to compensate for the overall suckiness of former #1, Andrea Bargnani.

Philadelphia Sixers (43-39)
Don't get me wrong, I like Elton Brand. I do. But Philly got to the playoffs last year by trapping and running off of turnovers. Not exactly Elton's forte. Also, I can't help but think that having EB down low on offense means less open floor for slashers like Iggy, Thaddeus Young and Andre Miller.

New York Knicks (25-57)
OK, here's where it starts to get ugly. D'Antoni wants to play uptempo but he's got a roster full of slugs. Only Jamal Crawford, David Lee and Wilson Chandler are good fits. Everyone else is available for sixty cents on the dollar. On the bright side, those slugs will get plenty of shots to pad their stats, making them easier to deal.

New Jersey Nets (23-59)
Is Vince Carter really the guy you want around your young, impressionable players? Expect VC to get moved when the Nets drop out of contention...by the third week of the season.



CENTRAL DIVISION
Detroit Pistons (57-25)
Joe Dumars has a reputation for recognizing talent. I'm quite certain that Kwame Brown has absolutely no talent whatsoever. Fortunately, this squad still has Rip, Chauncey, Rasheed and a strong crop of emerging youngsters on the bench, led by Maxiell and Stuckey. If they underachieve, look for Joe D to trade Sheed or Billups and build around Tayshaun. More likely is a return to the Finals, where they'll lose to the Hornets.

Cleveland Cavaliers (50-32)
Nervous days ahead for Danny Ferry. With Lebron's momentous stay/go decision looming, the GMs big signings lately have been Mo Williams and Lorenzen Wright. Eeesh. And it's difficult to picture getting much more mileage out of Big Z. The guess here is that James stays put but not without seriously considering his options first (think Kobe and the Clips a few years back).

Chicago Bulls (42-40)
Ben Gordon's got a legit gripe. Larry Hughes is making twelve mil a year. Nocioni's getting eight. Pax finally paid Luol Deng (smart move) but appears to be content letting Gordon walk, forgetting that two years ago, Gordon scored more points in the fourth quarter than anyone not named Bryant or James. Rookie Derrick Rose should be good enough to make Kirk Hinrich expendable.

Indiana Pacers (33-49)
Jim O'Brien's offense requires good three point shooters. So the team acquired TJ Ford and Jarrett Jack, neither of whom can shoot a lick. Genius. Danny Granger continues to look amazing next to the plodding Dunleavy and Murphy. The Pacers boast the worst pivot platoon in the league with Foster/Nesterovic/Hibbert/Harrison.

Milwaukee Bucks (24-58)
Where to start? Overpaid for Bogut. Obtained Luke Ridnour to be the starting PG. Drafted Joe Alexander way too high. Additionally, I don't see Skiles and Redd getting along. This front office consistently makes awful decisions.

SOUTHEAST DIVISION
Orlando Magic (47-35)
Despite another growth spurt by Dwight Howard, the Magic will discover they can't rely on PG Jameer Nelson. Hedo and Rashard Lewis will do what they do- make threes in bunches and play porous defense. Stan Van can coach, though, and that ensures them another division title, if nothing else.

Miami Heat (46-36)
With DWade back at full-strength, the Heat will be competitive once again. Beasley will do just fine on offense but struggle to match up with power forwards, infuriating Riley. Props for the James Jones signing- shrewd move. Not so much with Jamaal Magloire. Hey, Riles- how about Marion for Odom?

Washington Wizards (44-38)
Is Gil Arenas healthy? Butler and Jamison will do their thing, as always. The real problems lie with the less-than-stellar bigs (Haywood and Thomas).

*Note: Arenas just had knee surgery AGAIN and will miss the first month of the season- ouch.

Atlanta Hawks (40-42)
Continued progress by Al Horford means they'll vie for that 8-spot again. Losing Childress makes their bench wafer-thin, however. Seriously, name someone on Atlanta's bench.

Charlotte Bobcats (30-52)
Why exactly is Michael Jordan a GM? Expect a bumpy first year for Larry Brown as he discovers that few of the fellas on MJ's roster 'play the game the right way.' Could be some more crying from Adam Morrison on the horizon.

Team Nike vs Adidas Brotherhood

Everyone knows that Nike absolutely dominates the US basketball shoe market. Adidas is solidly in second place but it's an extremely distant second, like Phil Mickelson chasing Tiger Woods.

The men's US Olympic team is basically Nike's honor roll: Kobe, Lebron, Kidd, Chris Paul, D Williams, Boozer, Bosh, Carmelo, Tayshaun Prince, Mike Redd- all these guys have Nike contracts. Even Coach K has a shoe deal with Nike. Of the entire team, only Dwyane Wade (Converse, which is now owned by Nike) and Dwight Howard (Adidas) are non-Nike members.

Now look at the players Adidas currently has on its roster: Howard, KG, Duncan, Gilbert Arenas, Chauncey Billups, Tracey McGrady, Josh Smith, Leandro Barbosa and Antawn Jamison.


Get where I'm going with this?

I'm saying fuck the Olympics; nobody gives a shit how many points the US beats Latvia by. I WANNA SEE THE NIKE AND ADIDAS TEAMS GO AT IT.

I wanna see a qualifying series, best of seven, and the winner then gets to represent the USA in the Olympics.

The NBA's always talking about 'transparency.' How about some transparency about how our US team is chosen? Instead of selling the public the ridiculous idea that 12 out of 14 members of our 'national' team just coincidentally happen to be represented by the same conglomerate, why not make the shoe companies battle it out for all the marbles?

This will never happen, of course. Nike wouldn't have the balls. And these millionaire athletes would have to admit that their interest in the tournament was as much financial as patriotic.

Koko Archibong Enters The Pantheon

Whether Koko Archibong makes the regular season roster for the Los Angeles Clippers or not, he's officially enshrined in The Knee Jerk Pantheon Of Super Awesome Names, joining Kiki Vandeweghe, God Shamgod, Olden Polynice, Boniface N'Dong, Fennis Dembo and Uwe Blab.

Fire David Stern

History proves that leaders with unchecked power often go overboard, intoxicated with greed. Has there ever been a better example of this than David Stern? In a country that prides itself on freedom of speech, he excessively fines his employees for saying anything remotely critical of the league, even when it's a widely held belief that would actually IMPROVE matters (like having the refs be an outside agency, for example).

He fines his employees for how they dress WHEN THEY'RE NOT EVEN AT WORK. Unheard of. It'd be one thing if players insisted on wearing their own designer uniforms during games but he's taking money out of their pockets for how they dress when they board THE TEAM BUS. Ridiculous. Petulant. A gross misuse of power.

Hey, Stern- if you're so concerned with the league's image, take a look in the mirror. Nobody's done more to damage its reputation than you have. I'm sure Sonics fans would agree with me.

F U, Floppers

So the NBA's gonna crack down on flopping next year, eh? That's good. For too long now, flopping motherfuckers have been rewarded for their bitchery by myopic refs (who are probably fixing games for the mob). Flopping's terrible for the sport. It slows down the pace, causes injuries, pisses off the fans. You don't even cheer your own players when they take a charge. It's like you're happy but embarrassed for them at the same time. Seriously, when was the last time you heard a fan yell 'Way to sell that contact, Varejao!' or 'Great reverse tackle, Ginobili'? That kind of behavior starts fights on the playground. But NBA refs keep calling it so floppers keep doing it.

And now comes this talk of reviewing tapes and penalizing obvious flops. Cool. Scoring will go up. Why? Defensive players will make more plays on the ball instead of sliding in underneath to draw charges; offensive players will attack the rim more knowing some coward isn't rushing over to stand under their legs when they land.

Last year's biggest flopper? A surprise, actually. D Fish of The Lakers with something like 50 offensive fouls taken. People usually think of Fish as a high-character guy. The Flop is anything but high-character. How about next year, they give an award out at the end of the season for most charges taken and call it The Floppy? Floppy Fisher's got a nice ring to it.

My Predictions For '07/8

I can't wait for the season to start. I really can't. So much drama, so many good storylines. What's Kobe gonna do? Do AK47 and Matrix get shipped? Does the KG experiment work in Boston?

Let's start with the Leastern Conference, Atlantis Division.

1. CELTICS
I dig the KG/Pierce/Ray trio. Pierce and Ray are both versatile players who can get their own shots at any time. It'll be interesting to see who the alpha dog is in fourth quarter situations. I'm picking the Cs to win 52 games, have some injury problems and then end up losing to the Pistons in the Conference Finals. It also wouldn't surprise me if the team started slowly and Danny Ainge brought in Larry Brown to take over for Doc at the All Star break.

2. NETS
Who gives a shit, really? 45 wins. Another good year statistically for Kidd and Carter. Whatever. The only intrigue here is if Kidd gets dealt (please, come to the Lakers, pleasepleaseplease...).

3. RAPS
I think they could slide this year, honestly. My crystal ball tells me that Bosh is gonna miss a lot of games and Bargnani won't be a star just yet. And doesn't Sam Mitchell seem like a dick?

4. SIXERS
Too much was made of their good run at the end of last season. Iggy and Andre Miller can play but this team still sucks. And don't forget Dalembert's already injured. At some point this year, you'll hear the words 'they really seem to miss Joe Smith.' I swear. Watch. 'They're just not the same without Joe Smith out there.' Hilarious.

5. KNICKS
What? The? Fuck? After last season, I thought it couldn't get any worse for Isiah and the boys. Boy, was I wrong! Losing a 10 million dollar suit AND signing Zach Randolph? Wow. Just wow. I'm picking them to win 20 games. Seriously, 20-62. Marbury's a nutjob. Curry could drop dead at any minute. QRich has the worst Knick back since Larry Johnson. This is the year it all bottoms out. And Isiah probably gets shitcanned. At least Knick fans will have Lebron rumors to keep them warm at night.

OK, on to the Central.

1. DETROIT
They'll win the division and go to the Finals. Big years for Sheed and Billups. Youngsters Maxiell and Stuckey show promise. They're so consistent, these Pistons, kind of like The Spurs of the East.

2. BULLS
This Deng kid is pretty good. Reminds me of a young Pippen. And if Ty Thomas blows up the way I think he will, this team could knock off Detroit. But I don't see Skiles and Big Ben getting along for very long, do you? That's a Sprewell/Carlesimo Part 2 waiting to happen, right there.

3. CAVS
Cleveland will disappoint. Their inability to improve this off-season will hurt not only their chances to win the title this year but also to keep Lebron James in '09. I wouldn't be surprised to see Mike Brown fired after a disappointing early playoff exit.

4. PACERS
They'll be better than most expect. Jermaine O'Neal is still one of the best two way players in the league and Granger is poised to break out. Jim O'Brien's open offense will make everyone happy, even if they don't make the playoffs.

5. BUCKS
Huge deals for Bobby Simmons, Mo Williams, Charlie Bell? Those aren't guys you want break the bank for, Senator Kohl. And drafting Yi is not gonna work out well. He's got bust written all over him. Poor Mike Redd. He goes from the Dream Team to this?

Southeast

1. HEAT
With DWade back in MVP form, the Heat win 50+ games again. The Shaq/Zo combo platoon continues to be effective and lengthen their respective careers. I'm intrigued by Dorrell Wright. I'll bet he gets big minutes this year.

2. MAGIC
Dwight Howard will continue to dominate and draw 'young Shaq' comparisons. Rashard's shooting will open up a lot of space down low. Stan Van should be able to squeeze 45 wins out of these guys.

3. WIZARDS
I don't think Gilbert's full strength yet. In fact, I'm going on record right now saying that he misses half the season. He'll come back in time to make sure he doesn't jeopardize his impending free agency, bet on that. Antawn Jamison will be traded soon, too. Who Grunfeld gets back will determine the future of the franchise, and obviously whether or not Arenas stays.

4. BOBCATS
Why is Michael Jordan a GM, again? Gerald Wallace isn't worth all that money. And the Morrison pick is looking more foolish by the minute. The big story here is whether or not Meka's healthy. Doesn't really matter, though. They'll suck. JRich wasn't the answer, either. Another puzzling move by MJ.

5. HAWKS
No defense, no bball IQ. Horford's gonna be solid, though. Maybe not this year but soon. Joe Johnson gets to spend another year wondering why he left Phoenix. This team seems cursed. Maybe not as bad as The Clippers but close.

Over to The West we go. In the Pacific...

1. SUNS
Nash wins the MVP again as the Suns get to 60 wins. Marion will be dealt before the season ends. Amare's knees will continue to be an issue. Title talks are premature, however. They still won't get past The Spurs.

2. LAKERS
My guys will win a handful more games than they did last year, maybe jump up to 48 wins or so. The addition of Fisher (and subtraction of Smush) assures that. And I'm one of those who actually believe in Andrew Bynum. I wouldn't NOT DEAL HIM FOR KIDD or anything but I do think he's gonna put up 13/8/2 this year. Kwame Brown's on the way out the door, probably for draft picks. Sadly, I don't anticipate Phil coming back, either. Kobe? Who knows? But if I had to bet, I'd put my money on him retiring a Laker.

3. WARRIORS
Warriors, come out to play-ee-ay! This season will be rockier than the Warriors trying to get back home to Coney Island. Baron will get hurt like he always does. And that means Stephen Jackson is your team leader. Other ominous sign: a possible Nellie/Mullin rift.

4. KINGS
I bet both Mike Bibby and Ron Artest get traded. And Brad Miller looks ready to hang 'em up. Reggie Theus will be coaching in front of small crowds.

5. CLIPS
Just like old times. Ah, that old familiar sting of being in last place. Sam Cassell can't leave fast enough. Sure, he'll end up in the front office but he's too smart to have it be THIS front office. You know what would be really funny? A fight between Kaman and Tim Thomas.


Southwest
1. MAVS
With 60+ wins, they'll have the best regular season record again. But their pansy- ass jump shooting brand of basketball will lead to another embarrassing playoff choke. Dirk and Cuban beef openly. Avery wins Coach Of The Year, ironically.

2. SPURS
As always, they use the regular season to tune up and then win another title with strong D and continued improvement from Tony Parker, who gets MVP buzz. Duncan's got a few good seasons left in him.

3. ROCKETS
Yao's not really an uptempo player so it'll be interesting to see how Adelman structures the offense. TMac will be phenomenal, possibly 1st Team All NBA, if he stays healthy.

4. GRIZZ
Conley will be Durant's only competition for ROY. This team will play no defense whatsoever but Pau, Miller, Conley will all be amazing fantasy league players.

5. HORNETS
Not sure why, but I bet they implode. We get to see Chris Paul's ugly side. Byron Scott erupts! Tyson Chandler goes nuts and starts biting people. I'm feeling a dark energy from the Hornets...

Northwest

1. NUGS
Best team in a weak division. 50 wins sounds about right. Melo dominates, AI matures into a heady player. Karl's still one of the game's best coaches. KMart should just retire. He's not gonna come back. No way.

2. JAZZ
Distractions caused by DWill and Boozer free agency rumors will cause things to unravel a bit. AK will get traded to someplace unexpected like Philly.

3. SONICS
The Oklahoma City-bound Sonics will feature Delonte and Durant in a supersized backcourt. Kurt Thomas has his best season in 5 years. They'll still be unwatchable.

4. BLAZERS
With Oden, they were worth talking about. As is, they'll be boring, predictable and extremely unsuccessful in the winning of basketball games. Aldridge and Roy will continue to grow and wait for Golden Olden to return and anchor the middle.

4. WOLVES
Sucky. Foye and Jefferson will score a lot. Marco Jaric will get arrested for assaulting a woman. McHale really put together an awful team, eh?

MVP- Nash
Def Player- Garnett
Most Improved- Ty Thomas
ROY- Durant (Conley 2nd)
Coach- Avery

Champs- Spurs (over Pistons)