The Power Of The Plus/Minus

82games.com is pretty bad ass. Basically, they compile every stat imaginable to give a true indication of actual performance beyond the box score. My favorite stat is plus/minus per 48 minutes, which essentially tracks a player's performance, even in limited minutes, and predicts what kind of an impact that player would have over a full game. The plus/minus isn't just about scoring; it's about the overall effect on both ends of the court and how that translates into winning.

Using 82games data, I went through every team in the league and put together what each team's ideal lineup would be based on this theory. This doesn't mean these players should all be starters but it does mean they should get big minutes and be on the floor when the game's decided. I only included players who were already in the rotation since garbage time stats can be misleading.

What I discovered is that several big name stars would better serve their teams by riding the pine (I'm talking to you, AI).

ATLANTA
Josh Smith's numbers project to an astonishing +19.4 per 48 minutes. This makes him the 2nd most effective player in the entire NBA right now (Lamar Odom's first with 20.1 but more on him later).

Best lineup- Bibby, Johnson, Williams, Smith, Horford

Kudos to Mike Woodson for knowing the numbers and playing his best unit big minutes.

BOSTON
No surprises. KG leads the team at +15.5. Ray Allen's second at 14.8.

Best- Rondo, Allen, Pierce, KG, Perkins

CHARLOTTE
The entire team is in the negative so it's really just a matter of choosing who sucks the least. Also, basketball is a team sport so one good player can't make the other four not suck. Jason Richardson has their best numbers (-0.9), Matt Carroll, their worst (-10.1).

Best- Augustin, Felton, Richardson, Wallace, Okafor

CHICAGO
Andres Nocioni is a winner (+4.8) and should be not only starting but playing huge minutes on a team full of minuses. Thought Derrick Rose was a superstar? Think again- he's -5.5. Vinny Del Negro should also be aware that Drew Gooden's playing 30 minutes a game despite his awful production (-8.2)

Best- Rose, Gordon, Deng, Nocioni, Noah

CLEVELAND
The King lives up to his title with a gaudy +17.3. Delonte West is right on his heels at +15.7

Best- Williams, West, James, Wallace, Z

DALLAS
Contrary to popular belief, Kidd (+7.5) and Dirk (+6.9) are meshing well. The big surprise? Dampier (+10.5) actually has the best number on the team. Who's got the worst? Jerry Craphouse at an abysmal -24.6. In fact, that number makes Craphouse the league's worst player per 48. He's now out of the rotation and asking for a trade.

Best- Kidd, Terry, Howard, Nowitzki, Dampier

Sorry, Craphouse. No minutes for you.



DENVER
Chauncey's leading the team at +7.9. That AI trade's looking better all the time. Linas Kleiza is playing over 20 minutes a game but not producing (-2.8)

Best- Billups, JR Smith (not Dahntay Jones), Melo, Martin, Nene

DETROIT
Speaking of AI, he's at -1.7 and his ballhogging has made Rip Hamilton considerably less effective (-2.6). Stick 'em both on the bench. Arron Afflalo has been excellent (+12.8) in limited minutes- give him a shot.

Best- Stuckey, Afflalo, Prince, Sheed, Amir Johnson

Here's a clear case where the suggested change obviously WON'T happen. No way Curry brings AI or Rip off the bench but according to 82games, the Pistons would have a better chance of winning if he did.

GOLDEN ST
Jamal Crawford is a great example of a guy who puts up numbers that don't translate to wins. Since coming to the Warriors, he's at -12.9. Kelenna Azubuike's pretty awful, too (-8.7). Ronny Turiaf, AKA The Chocolate Moose, is the team's most efficient player at +4.7.

Best- CJ Watson, Maggette, Jax, Turiaf, Biedrins

HOUSTON
Shane Battier only played in a handful of games before getting hurt but his numbers are off the charts (+16.1). Yao's second at +8.5.

Best- Alston, Battier, McGrady, Artest, Yao

Yep, that's a lineup with Ron Ron at PF. Try it out, Adelman. Move Scola to the bench.

INDIANA
Granger (+3.2) and Marquis Daniels (+2.7) are their only good players. Little wonder they're a mediocre ballclub.

Best- Ford, Daniels, Granger, Murphy, Nesterovic

LA CLIPS
Nobody on the positive side. Camby's the closest at -1.4. Kaman (-9) and Ricky Davis (-21.3 for fuck's sake!) are the real reason this club is complete dogshit. Other than Craphouse, Ricky Buckets has been the worst rotation player in the game. I say 'has been' not because he IS ONE but because he hasn't seen significant PT in weeks.

Best- Baron, Gordon, Thornton, Randolph, Camby

LA LAKERS
As previously mentioned, Lamar leads the entire league at +20.1. It should be noted that he's frequently matched up with 2nd unit guys now that he's a 6th man so that stat might need an asterisk. Trevor Ariza's also at an eye-popping +18.2. Kobe's just being Kobe (+14.7). The entire rotation has big numbers but these three are the biggest contributors to the team's 17-2 start.

Best- Fish, Kobe, Ariza, Lamar, Pau

'Only 25 minutes a game for me, Phil? C'mon!'



MEMPHIS
Media darlings OJ Mayo and Rudy Gay (can I just combine their names and call them Ru J Gayo?) get a lot of attention for their big scoring numbers but these two are getting smashed in plus/minus (-7.6 and -8.6 respectively). The team is so bad, they're still the best options for big minutes but neither of these guys should be considered a star by any means. Like Jamal Crawford, they get points but not results. The team's best players? Darko and Hakim Warrick, believe it or not.

Best- Lowry, Mayo, Gay, Warrick, Milicic

MIAMI
Wade (+6.9) and Marion (+5.7) are solid. Michael Beasley's getting ripped in the press but still manages to stay in the black at +1.1.

Best- Chalmers, Wade, Marion, Beasley, Haslem

MILWAUKEE
Sessions is better than Ridnour (+1.1 to -1.1). Charlie Bell is the weak link at -6.7. Rookie Luc Richard Mbaha Moute should be starting.

Best- Sessions, Redd, Jefferson, Mbaha Moute, Bogut

MINNESOTA
Not that Wittless is gone, McFail decides who gets the minutes. The smart money's on benching Gomes (-8.1) and Assy Telfair (-4.9).

Best- Foye, McCants, Miller, Love, Jefferson

NJ NETS
Devin Harris is the only starter playing winning ball. Expect the losses to start piling up any day now. Their best chance of winning is with this lineup (seriously).

Best- Harris, Carter, Hassell, Yi, Lopez

NY KNICKS
No positives. Tim Thomas is the worst at -16. Harrington's at -6.9. Blech.

Best- Duhon, Q, Chandler, Lee, Harrington

OKC SUPERSTOLENS
Earl Watson (-19) and Nick Collison (-22.5) are playing CBA ball out there. Russell Westbrook and Joe Smith are much better options at those positions.

Best- Westbrook, Mason, Durant, Smith, Wilcox

ORLANDO
Michael Pietrus was playing beautifully before getting hurt (+11.8). Good acquisition by Otis Smith (can't believe I just wrote that!).

Best- Nelson, Pietrus, Turk, Rashard, Howard

PHILLY
The numbers seem to indicate that the Sixers are losing mostly due to poor play by their bench, specifically Louis Williams (-6.9). Iggy leads the team at +4.3.

Best- Miller, Iggy, Thaddeus, Brand, Dalembert

PHOENIX
Nash is the best starter at +3.4. Shaq's breaking even. Leandro Barbosa's fallen off a cliff at -7.2. His mother just died so maybe he's having trouble focusing.

Best- Nash, Bell, Barnes, Diaw, Stoudemire (sorry, Shaq)

PORTLAND
Nic Batum (+9.3) and Aldridge (+9.2) lead the team. Prezbo (+6.1) is outplaying Oden (+0.3).

Best- Blake, Roy, Batum, Aldridge, Prezbo

SACTO
Their 'best' is Beno Udrih at -4. Bobby Brown (and I'm not being cruel) is at -12. Rookie Jason Thompson is deserving of some extra burn.

Best- Beno, Salmons, Thompson, Mikki Moore, Brad Miller (in your face, Lil' Brad Hawes)

SPURS
Bonner! +11.7! I'm speechless. Ime Udoka's next at +8.8. So why the slow start? Amazingly, Duncan and Parker are both in the red for the year.

Best- TP, Ginobili, Udoka, Bonner, Duncan

TORONTO
Kris Humphries and Jamario Moon have been their only good players. Bosh and Calderon are both hovering around -2. Jermaine is a weak -5.3.

Best- Calderon, Parker, Moon, Humphries, Bosh

UTAH
AK47 and Paul Millsap have been excellent. DWill and Boozer, even when healthy, have been only so-so.

Best- Williams, Brewer, Kirilenko, Millsap, Okur

WIZ
You know you're fucked when Nick Young and Andray Blatche are your best players. Deshawn Stevenson (-12.1) better grow his beard back or something.

Best- Juan Dixon, Butler, Jamison, Songaila, rookie Javale McGee

So there you have it. Again, not necessarily the best starting units but a strong recommendation for who should be out there in the 4th quarter when the game's on the line.

Thanks, 82games. You rock.

Andrew Bynum: The Next Benoit Benjamin?

As the Lakers contemplate whether or not to give young, recently injured Andrew Bynum a max contract, I�m reminded of another talented center with limitless potential and a questionable work ethic- Benoit Benjamin.

In case you don�t remember Benoit, he was a lottery pick of the Clippers in �85. His first few years in the league, he showed steady progress and appeared to be on the verge of stardom in �88 when he averaged over 16 points, almost 9 boards and over 3 blocks a game.

Then he got a big contract.



The rest of Benjamin�s 15-year career was respectable but hardly noteworthy. Particularly annoying to fans and management alike was Benoit�s complete lack of focus. His legacy was bringing two left sneakers to an exhibition game.

Numerous times in his first three seasons, Andrew Bynum�s attitude has been questioned by not only Kobe Bryant (the parking lot rant) but also by Hall Of Fame mentor, Kareem Abdul Jabbar. Phil Jackson repeatedly called him out for being lazy and slow to learn defensive rotations.

In fact, until this year, Bynum didn�t impress anyone except Jim Buss, the man responsible for drafting him against the better wishes of just about everyone else in the organization.

Then early last season, the kid had his big breakout. With Chris Mihm injured, Bynum stepped into the starting role and played like he belonged there, averaging a double-double and blocking shots at a league-leading pace. With each impressive performance, the critics grew quieter. Kobe stopped pining for Jason Kidd. Phil seemed genuinely surprised and delighted at this unexpected good fortune. Great nicknames like 'Mandrew' and 'Bynumite' started popping up all over the place. People started comparing him to Shaq, for fuck's sake.



As you know, the story doesn't end well. Bynum hurt his knee and missed the entire second half of the season plus the playoffs. In the aftermath of the Lakers/Celtics debacle, many wondered whether his presence alone would have altered the outcome. Wow. Think about that for a sec. Thirty games of solid basketball and suddenly Andrew Bynum's absence is the reason LA lost the title.

Pretty good time to negotiate a new contract, right?

Laker fans think Bynum deserves a max deal now, even though his rookie deal's good through the end of the year. They want to lock him up to keep him from leaving as a free agent in '09.

But what's Bynum proven, really? He hasn't been an All-Star or a Finals MVP. And he's coming off a knee injury. Why not wait until the kid shows he can do it for a full season before breaking the bank?

Remember Benoit Benjamin? I do. I remember a talented big man who stopped caring the second he got paid.

Note: Compare third year numbers between Bynum and Benjamin.

What Could've Been

Watching Kobe and Kidd zip around the court for Team America turning steals into dunks makes me livid at Kupcake for not pulling the trigger on that Bynum-Kidd deal last year. Despite rumors to the contrary, Kidd obviously still has a lot left in the tank. And while Bynum has shown glimpses of incredible promise, he's a long ways away from being a consistent starter, much less a dominant big man. How do you pass on a chance to get Jason Kidd when your starting point guard is Smush Motherfucking Parker?

Germ and Big Ben took me to a Lakers/Wolves game last year where Bynum had a double-double and was blocking shots like crazy. Staples was chanting 'By-num, By-num,' I swear this is true. Garnett was killing us the way he always does but everyone in that building knew he was gonna opt out and be wearing the purple-and-gold in '08. Everyone knew it. It was a beautiful night, and not just because the Lakers won going away. We saw the future that night- our dynastic, overpowering, title-winning front line. Granted we were full of beer, weed and Oxycontin, but we believed in this vision.

So what happened since then to put a damper on things?

Well, for one, Bynum didn't repeat that night's performance very often. A typical game for Andrew consisted of late rotations, dumb fouls and an earful from Phil or Kobe (or both). Sometimes Kareem would get in the act, too, pointing out his pupil's basic lack of comprehension. Then the whole Kobe-in-the-parking-lot thing went down and the lasting impression was that Bynum was Jim Buss' pet project, more important than getting Kobe and Phil what they need to compete with the Spurs/Mavs/Suns in the West.

Garnett wanted to come. But the Wolves got lots of better offers elsewhere. Maybe if LA had done a better job of drafting in recent years, they'd have some additional chips to throw in the pot but the sad truth is that the current Lakers roster has very few players that other teams covet and would want to trade for.

So now here we are, watching Kobe dominate the world and rub it in our faces. He's playing better defense than he has in five years for Los Angeles. He's cheating on us, in a way, savoring all the desirable companionship he's not getting at home. We just want him to be happy and to not leave us.

What a difference six months makes.